Modelo de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico para la economía de México: perturbaciones tecnológicas y evolutivas

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Abstract

Technological change has been a subject of great interest in economic analysis because it is
responsible for most of the increase in productivity, and therefore is a fundamental factor in the
production growth. Similarly, technological progress is of great help in explaining the changes in
economics and other trends related to modern economic growth. Under this, a problem that is crucial
for the economic development of Mexico is its low economic growth and the consequent inability to
generate the necessary jobs, due to a difficult framework to increase productivity. Therefore, the
objective of this work is to design and simulate a dynamic stochastic model for the Mexican
economy, incorporating specific and neutral technological disturbances, through optimization
methods such as evolutionary algorithms. Among the main results is that the disturbances introduced
to the model have different effects separately, since their impact is not the same for all the variables
of the model. Likewise, it was found that the specific investment disturbance has a greater effect on
the production function than that of the evolutionary disturbance carried out with the genetic
algorithm, but that simulated at the same time, a sustained and more balanced growth can be
obtained, which differs quite of the traditional models. As conclusions, it was possible to develop a
dynamic and chaotic model capable of evolving over time and that optimizes the labor and capital
factors, thus providing a better tool to understand and develop more complex models of economic
cycles.