Forecasting Corn Storage Capacity in Santos Port Terminal in Brazil

Abstract

Brazil, an important player in the international commodities trade, is currently the third largest exporter of corn, which is one of the main inputs in several food supply chains. In this study, we investigated the capability of the Port of Santos, the major port of Latin America, to deal with the growing demand for Brazilian corn exportation. To do so, forecast models to estimate corn exports from both Brazil and the Port of Santos for the 2017-2021 period were used. Next, data from the main grain export terminal of the Port of Santos was used to determine its storage capacity for accommodating a sufficient flow of corn to meet new export demands via Santos. The results show that corn exports along this route may increase by 115%, which necessitates investment in the port and terminal to avoid logistical bottlenecks.